Application of dynamic factor models for inflation forecasting in Poland

Jarosław Krajewski

Abstract


The subject of this article is the application of dynamic factor models in modelling and forecasting inflation in Poland. It contains a brief description of the DFM tool. It also provides a glimpse at empirical forms of tools used to determine the forecasts and compares the forecasts using meters normally used for this purpose. The empirical analysis was carried out on the basis of a set of monthly data. The set consists of 70 variables from the period between January 2002 and March 2015.


Keywords


Dynamic Factor Model, Method of Principal Components, Inflation, Forecasting

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.19197/tbr.v15i1.36

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Print ISSN: 1643-8175, Online ISSN: 2451-0955, DOI prefix: 10.19197, Principal Contact: tbr@wsb.torun.pl