ARE THERE NEW PATTERNS OF THE GLOBAL IMBALANCE (FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF 2023)?

Monika Andrzejczak

Abstract


The aim of the article is to assess the validity of considering the global imbalances through the prism of imbalances in the calculations of the Current Account and the International Investment Position to investigate the impact of the crises on these values in the years 2005-2022.  The research period has been broken down into the following sub-periods: 2005-2006 (pre-crisis period), 2007-2009 (Global Financial Crisis), 2010-2019 (inter-crisis period), 2020 (Covid-19), 2021 (post-pandemic recovery), and 2022 (Russian war). The countries have been selected from each of the following categories: the highest surpluses and highest deficits in the Current Account and the International Investment Position. The countries have been divided into research groups according to the criterion of the Current Account balance stability, understood as the value of the coefficients of variation based on the first differences of the Current Account balances during the inter-crisis period. The similarities and differences among the groups have been reduced to the assessment of average values of the Current Account and the net International Investment Position, the relationship between these accounts and the share of the Current Account balance in the creation of the GDP.  The results have been summarized by presenting the correlation coefficients between the Current Account balance and net International Investment Position. The results indicate: (i) adopting the traditional global imbalance approach based on the calculations of the Current Account and International Investment Position is valid; (ii) the crises disrupt cross-border trade; (iii) there are connections between the variability of the Current Account balance and the specialization of a given country, geographical location and membership in international organizations. The study is based on WDI and IMF database.


Keywords


global imbalance, current account, international investment position, crisis.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.19197/tbr.v23i2.367

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